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Russia key to Iraq attack
By Ron Hutcheson and Mark McDonald
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON � President Bush takes his case against Iraq to the United Nations Thursday, but his success or failure at the world body may hinge on an audience of one: Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As Bush seeks to rally U.N. support for possible military action, Russia looms as a pivotal swing vote. With veto power on the U.N. Security Council and longstanding ties to Iraq, Moscow could become a formidable obstacle in Bush's path to Baghdad or help clear the way for a U.S.-led invasion.
It is not an easy call for Putin. The Russian leader wants to align his country with the West, but he is under pressure at home to stand up to the United States and to protect Russia's economic stake in Iraq.
"While America thinks about bombing Iraq, we think about doing business there," said Alexander Yedokov, acting director of a Russian-Iraqi business council in Moscow.
Russia's importance to the international debate is a matter of both complex geo-political calculations and simple vote counting.
As one of five permanent members of the 15-member U.N. Security Council�along with the United States, the United Kingdom, France and China�Russia is empowered to veto any resolution, including one authorizing force against Iraq.
So far, only Britain is fully on board with Bush, but France has recently softened its opposition. China is a harder sell, but diplomats and foreign policy experts generally agree that Beijing would not want to stand alone if Russia and France fall in line with the United States.
"France is not going to veto the United States, so in that sense, Russia is important. If they go along, China is likely to go along," said Judith Kipper, a foreign policy specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "If Russia categorically says, 'At no price will we go along with this,' it's a problem."
Russia's support for U.S. policy in Iraq would also send a powerful message of solidarity to the world. If it could clear the veto hurdle, a U.S.-backed resolution on Iraq would have little difficulty winning the nine votes needed for approval from the full 15-member security council.
Syria is the only likely "no' vote in a lineup that includes Mexico, Norway, Ireland and other U.S. allies.
While Bush attended ceremonies Wednesday marking the anniversary of last Sept. 11's terrorist attacks, U.S and British officials were hard at work on a proposed U.N. resolution that would give Iraq about three weeks to provide complete access to U.N. weapons inspectors�or else.
"We're back to early Afghanistan days in terms of how closely we're working with the British," said one Bush administration official.
France has proposed a two-step process that would require a second vote authorizing military force if Iraq refuses to cooperate with inspections, but the U.S. and Britain will press for a single vote. The proposed resolution would call for new inspections and simultaneously authorize the use of military force if Iraq balks.
Under Secretary of State John Bolton arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for talks, and he will be followed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and foreign secretary Jack Straw.
Next week, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld will meet in Washington with Russian foreign minister Igor Ivanov and defense minister Sergei Ivanov.
Russia's decision may hinge on economics.
Saddam Hussein and his regime owe Russia an estimated $8 billion�a debt that is unlikely to be repaid as long as U.N. economic sanctions remain in place.
Russia is also on the verge of signing a $40 billion economic pact with Iraq that includes contracts to help rebuild Iraq's crumbling oil infrastructure.
The question for Putin and Russia's business moguls is, are they better off doing business with the current Iraqi regime or seeking a guaranteed slice of the pie from a new U.S.-backed Iraqi government?
"They don't care about Saddam Hussein," said Michael Mandelbaum, author of "The Ideas that Changed the World," a new book that examines Russia's role in the post-Cold War world. "Privately, what they'll be saying is, 'What's in it for us?' You're going to start seeing a kind of (secret) bargaining over�to put it crudely�dividing up the spoils."
Yedokov, the head of the Russian-Iraqi business group in Moscow, said some Russian firms are already looking ahead to the possibility of a regime change.
"Our oil companies are already doing all they can to secure their future positions in Iraq," he said. "Russian businesses don't care who the Iraqi leader is. If it's not Saddam Hussein, they'll deal with the new guy."
But some Russian hard-liners, still chafing at the loss of Kremlin influence since the collapse of the Soviet Union, complain that Putin has already gone too far in accommodating Bush.
"Putin is in a tough spot, definitely, and the public statements from his administration remain fairly critical because they're concerned about domestic opinion," said a senior Western diplomat in Moscow. "They want to show they're standing up to the Americans."
Even so, most experts agree that, if forced to choose between Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush, Putin will side with Bush.
"Russia has a considerable economic interest in Iraq that I would argue would be better protected under new leadership in Iraq," U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow said at a Sept. 11 anniversary forum in Moscow earlier this week. "I am not saying that our interests are identical, but I think they are very similar."
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