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Congress race close
Published:
Monday, November 4, 2002
Steven Thomma
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON � Less than 48 hours before Americans vote in mid-term-elections, late surveys dashed Democratic hopes for a last-minute surge. The country remained evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, at least seven Senate races remained too close to call, and the House of Representatives remained likely to stay Republican.
Polls showed late movements in some campaigns, but they were scattered and signaled no national trend for either party.
In Arkansas, Democrat Mark Pryor seemed to be opening a significant lead over Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson, a race heretofore considered a toss-up. But in Georgia, Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss pulled even with Democratic Sen. Max Cleland, threatening an offsetting partisan upset. And in Florida, Gov. Jeb Bush, the No. 1 target of Democrats nationally, seemed to be pulling decisively ahead of Democratic challenger Bill McBride.
Other Senate races in Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Texas remained tossups. In Minnesota, Democrat Walter Mondale and Republican Norm Coleman prepared for their only debate Monday morning, a dramatic last-minute gambit that could decide the election.
Nationally, a new Pew Research Center poll showed the country still split, with 46 percent of likely voters saying they planned to vote Democratic for Congress and 44 percent saying they planned to vote Republican. That was essentially unchanged from a month earlier.
Absent a stronger wind at their back, Democrats faced a difficult challenge in trying to overcome a six-seat deficit in the House. They must sweep as many as 14 House contests that are considered tossups and also win back two districts that are leaning Republican.
"There's been no movement. There's been no surge for either party," said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan research group that conducted the national poll. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
"The popular vote is going to be quite close. No matter who is in control of Congress, it's going to be evenly divided."
Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, the House Democratic Leader, remained outwardly confident. "I'm very optimistic that we're going to pick up seats in the Senate and we're going to win back the House next Tuesday," he said during an appearance on ABC's "This Week" program.
But Republicans, led by President Bush, appeared increasingly confident Sunday that they could defy history by keeping losses to a minimum or even gaining House seats.
The last president whose party won House seats in his first mid-term election was Franklin Roosevelt in 1934.
Since then, every one of 10 presidents has seen his party lose seats in his first mid-term election, 27 on average.
"That we're not getting creamed right now might be a referendum on how the country feels about George Bush," said Bush adviser Mary Matalin on CNN's "Late Edition" program.
Bush's popularity stood sky-high at 72 percent in a Pew poll released last week.
Anxious to help his own Republican Party, Bush barnstormed Sunday through the Midwest.
"Do whatever it takes, get on the phone, grab your neighbor. Do whatever it takes to get people to the polls," he urged Republicans in Springfield, Ill.
Later he flew to St. Paul, Minn., to campaign for Coleman. Polls there were mixed and the political environment remained volatile a little more than a week after Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash. One public poll showed Coleman ahead; two other polls showed Mondale ahead.
In Arkansas, Pryor was pulling away in a race long considered a tossup. He led Sunday by 11 percentage points, according to a survey of likely voters by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
In Georgia, a race long considered safe for Democrats turned competitive. A new survey for MSNBC showed Cleland and Chambliss tied at 49 percent each. The margin of error was unavailable.
In Texas, Democrat Ron Kirk closed on Republican John Cornyn in that state's Senate race. Two polls, including one released Sunday, showed the race a dead heat.
In the Florida governor's race, MSNBC polls showed Bush pulling ahead by 15 percentage points. Two other recent polls showed Bush leading by 8 percentage points.
