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Survey highlights election
A statewide survey conducted through SCSU reveals Minnesotans preferences for the election
By Adam Hammer
Published:
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Tuesday night marked the finale of an SCSU Statewide Survey that polled Minnesotan adults' sentiments, feelings and preferences on the upcoming election.
With less than a week's time before Election Day, the results depict Minnesota favoring Sen. John Kerry for president.
"This is not one of those quickie, overnight polls," Stephen Frank, professor of political science, said.
The survey was led by eight students from the Social Science Research Institute under the faculty direction of Frank, and two other political science professors, Steven Wagner and Michelle Kukoleca Hammes.
The selection of polled participants was set to match the demographics per Minnesota's population. Wagner said there was less than a four percent margin of error.
"This sample matches the population of the state of Minnesota," Frank said. "It's pretty good I think."
Of 673 survey phone calls recorded, 41 percent of all respondents said they would definitely vote for Kerry opposed to 36 percent in favor of President George W. Bush.
Four percent did not know whom they would vote for on Tuesday.
"(This tells us) that people have pretty much made up their minds," Wagner said. "But at the same time, we still have (responses) leaning Bush and leaning Kerry. They may change (their vote)."
The leaning respondents accounted for six percent towards Bush and five percent Kerry.
"Survey work, public opinion work is a snapshot of time," Wagner said. "It's a good guide, but it may not predict, in our case, with what might happen next week."
A likely voter, according to the investigators, is any adult registered to vote or is planning to vote.
Likely voters polled responded 44 percent in favor of Kerry and 36 percent for Bush.
Three percent were undecided.
The survey also attempted to answer the question of why Minnesotans are supporting these candidates.
On rating President Bush's performance, 33 percent disapproved. On the other side of the spectrum, 11 percent found it excellent.
The highest scoring reasons for candidates supporting Bush were his positions on abortion, experience, guns and hunting and for "no particular reason."
Kerry was most supported for his positions on the budget deficit, education, environment, health care, social security and senior issues. Other reasons in favor of Kerry were time for a change and somebody different.
The most surprising statistic, according to the directors, was the demographics of likely voters and their presidential preferences. Fifty percent of males favored Bush and 56 percent of females favored Kerry. Two percent of each gender favored Nader.
Wagner said that one of the most unique issues with this year's survey was the expressed concerns of foreign policy.
The survey also gauged political topics more closely related to Minnesota.
In the "Feeling Thermometer" survey, respondents were asked to gauge their feelings towards some political leaders on a range of 0-100.
In regards to the sixth district congress elections between Mark Kennedy and Patty Wetterling, the mean response was 60 degrees for Wetterling and 48 degrees for Kennedy.
"It's a pretty good predictor," Wagner said, "but again, this is really statewide."
Wagner said the margin of error statewide is at 3.7, but when related to the sixth district alone would jump to about 5.
"This is statewide. Does this translate into a congressional race? No. But it does give us a little bit of a glimpse," Wagner said.
On the direction of the state of Minnesota, 50 percent of respondents said it was on the right direction, eight percent were neutral, 36 percent felt it was the wrong track and six percent didn't know.
The most important problem facing the state was education funding, which has been the top concern, according to the survey, since 2000.
To fix the problems facing the state, 239 of 571 participants put faith in the Democrats, while 170 are in favor of the Republican party.
The work that went into the survey fell largely on the student directors and the student participants.
Of the questions asked, about 12 to 14 were reserved for the students questions.
"That was the best part of this by far," Jason Lunser, student supervising director said. "Really, it's a student project."
It took about a month for the student directors and technical staff to round down 32 questions to the handful that they used for the survey.
Approximately 50 students from political science classes completed the calling after completing five or more hours of training and screening.
Faculty and student directors monitored the calling shifts.
Lunser along with student directors Adriana Dobrzycka and Stacey Springer will present their findings at the Minnesota Political Science Conference on Nov. 6.
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